Earlier this week Egypt's military rulers made it clear that they will effectively be in power till "late 2012." The generals, all Mubarak appointees, want to reorganize the political landscape to ensure they can still wield influence. They've also revived old emergency laws favored by Mubarak. And they try civilians in military courts. Revolution indeed. That reminded me of a recent opinion piece by Hussein Agha and Robert Malley in The New York Review of Books, "The Arab Counterrevolution." There, Agha and Malley argue that "the Arab awakening" is "a tale of three battles rolled into one": people against regimes (basically the tug of war between regimes and spontaneous protesters); people against people ("a focused fight among more organized political groups"); and regimes against other regimes (this "assumes an increasingly prominent role"). They argue that "any number of outcomes could emerge from this complex brew." They claim that "the outcome of the Arab awakening will not be determined by those who launch it."

Revolutions devour their children. The spoils go to the resolute, the patient, who know what they are pursuing and how to achieve it. Revolutions almost invariably are short-lived affairs, bursts of energy that destroy much on their pathway, including the people and ideas that inspired them. So it is with the Arab uprising. It will bring about radical changes. It will empower new forces and marginalize others. But the young activists who first rush onto the streets tend to lose out in the skirmishes that follow. Members of the general public might be grateful for what they have done. They often admire them and hold them in high esteem. But they do not feel they are part of them. The usual condition of a revolutionary is to be tossed aside.

That leaves "two relatively untarnished and powerful forces": the military and "Islamists." The Islamists are more concerned with how they're perceived in the West. As for the military,

[i]n Egypt, although closely identified with the former regime, they dissociated themselves in time, sided with the protesters, and emerged as central power brokers. They are in control, a position at once advantageous and uncomfortable. Their preference is to rule without the appearance of ruling, in order to maintain their privileges while avoiding the limelight and accountability. To that end, they have tried to reach understandings with various political groups. If they do not succeed, a de facto military takeover cannot be ruled out.

Agha and Massey concludes:

The Arab world’s immediate future will very likely unfold in a complex tussle between the army, remnants of old regimes, and the Islamists, all of them with roots, resources, as well as the ability and willpower to shape events. Regional parties will have influence and international powers will not refrain from involvement. There are many possible outcomes—from restoration of the old order to military takeover, from unruly fragmentation and civil war to creeping Islamization. But the result that many outsiders had hoped for—a victory by the original protesters—is almost certainly foreclosed.

Source.

 American photographer Lori Grinker's new project "Distant Relations" traces the diaspora--in 8 countries--created by the (largely forced) migration of her 19th century ancestors from Lithuania. Grinkers, most who don't know of each other, ended up in places as far afield as the UK, US, Ukraine, Australia, Argentina, Germany, and of course, South Africa. A first cut of the project--from photos taken in Lithuania (2002), South Africa (2005), Ukraine (2008), and the US (2011)--can be seen at a gallery in New York City since early September. Here.   As her cousin Roy Richard Grinke (an anthropologist) writes in an essay accompanying the exhibit,  Lori's aim with the project, he writes, is is to focus,

more on particular environments than people and practices. Paradoxically, however, the photographs, many without people or faces, challenge us to imagine. Who are the people who made these worlds? And how does someone experience a life through them? There is, in these captivating images, what might be called either a present absence or an absent presence. We are compelled to look beyond the shreds and patches that comprise our memories, like letters and photographs, to the unseen. These images, and the people and places they represent, are fragmentary, perhaps like the Jews themselves, but they cohere around their incompleteness and instability, characteristics that are the essence of diaspora.

As for her South African relatives, she tells The New York Times' Lens Blog:

In South Africa, she met Anthony Grinker, who had been a politician. He was married to Hilda Grinker, a black woman whose family had been politically active in the anti-Apartheid movement. Mr. Grinker, who contracted H.I.V. as a single man, was the first person in South Africa’s parliament to go public about having H.I.V. The couple had been trying to have a baby when he died tragically in a car crash.

There's an image of Anthony Grinker and his wife in a slideshow on the Lens Blog page. (He was an IFP MP in Cape Town and later a provincial MP before he briefly joined an IFP splinter group before his death.) I have vague memories of meeting through my old job. Friendly, descent man. There's also some video evidence of the South African Grinkers in this short video (the 5 minute mark). Here are some more images of the life worlds of the South African Grinkers (a rugby field, the coast, a synagogue).

http://vimeo.com/29513113 A video about the motivations and some of the demands of the people questioning Wall Street's control of American politics, wanting to make "a Middle Eastern style revolution" happen here and giving both the right, mainstream and American left headaches. Also, I think I heard someone blowing a vuvuzela the right way--around the 4 minute mark.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07QfPUyXQQg UPDATED: Black Atlas is an American Airlines special promotion for African-American travelers. You can see the series of videos on the program's Youtube channel. Sometimes the videos give the impression that African-Americans are new to a region. Like in this video about India. (In the video, alongside all the usual tourist stereotypes, the link is between the ideas of Martin Luther King Jnr and Mahatma Gandhi, is played up for example.) But that is such a misrepresentation about African American travel to South Asia. Just take jazz. Indian filmmaker Susheel Kurien's "Finding Carlton" about bebop guitarist Carlton Kitto and "the bygone age of jazz in India" will hopefully start setting the record straight. Jazz music in India (mostly in Lucknow, Delhi, Mumbai and Calcutta), dates back to pre-World War II American military presence there, visiting swing bands, and US State Department sponsored tours by African-American recording artists. The film will also explore the influence of American jazz on Bollywood. (BTW, on his blog, Kurien has a few posts about that connection.) Just on the basis of clips of the film, I can see the film starting to pop up at festivals soon. Tomorrow night a rough cut will screen at the monthly DocuClub, which screens work-in-progress documentaries--here in New York City. In the first clip (above) sax player Micky Correa talks about Bombay (Mumbai) big bands. A few other legends' names get thrown in. In the second clip Carlton Kitto tells a story about he played in Duke Ellington's band: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h924X5iN5U The film's Youtube channel also have clips of Ellington playing in India, video cliff notes on the history of jazz in India by American academic Bradley Shope (parts one, two and three) and the new crop of Indian jazz musicians, like Sonia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEvNu_rdhXk The period video for the recently released "Classic" by MED, featuring Talib Kweli.

Takun J, the leading proponent of the Liberian music genre, breaks down its essence for a group of visiting journalism students from Syracuse University. http://vimeo.com/25558922 * I would also suggest reading Boima's account of the social impact of hipco. Here's an excerpt:

Despite Hipco’s activist potential, it has not yet been able to exploit its positive social influence to the fullest. While it is helping to define a new national identity for an entire generation of young Liberians, the economics of the industry are still entrenched in the same old patronage systems. While home studios have allowed artists to record independently, CDs and tapes still dominate the market, as opposed to Ghana, where the MP3 is the most common currency, and one company holds a monopoly on the manufacture and distribution of CDs and tapes. A political system that has traditionally kept many Liberians from forming local businesses combined with the growing problem of local piracy has made independent music a risky enterprise. Cellcom, one of the only local corporations, does sponsor events, but they seem to be the only ones doing so. Other locally operating corporations like Firestone, Chevron, and various mining companies are foreign entities, who don’t tend to have much interest in connecting with local youth. As a result, the only way for many artists to make a living is through sponsorship by politicians or foreign businesses.

Here. Photo Credit: Cedric Miles.

Yes, some Europeans, specifically Belgians -- who else but "a fine group of web designers, web developers, communication specialists, tech, boys and girls" -- came up with this idea. So if someone asks you why you need another piece of cake, just say "I'm eating for Africa." To help starving "people and children" in East Africa. Get people to eat. Endless opportunities for creative people like you.